Harry and Meghan

I suspect that it’s really Meghan and Harry, maybe I’ve been ‘bewitched’ during the past decade. I understand both the possibility and the consequences. But I’ve never pretended to be anyone other than my real self.

But who does Harry think he is? And who would Meghan like to be? Well, she isn’t! Just rather overstated and full of self-importance.

Strip them, Your Majesty, and for goodness sake deny them any part of the royal purse.

How should Russia respond?

So, not surprisingly, Finland and Sweden are applying for NATO membership. They have been provoked by the Ukraine/Russia war. As we might have expected , the Russian response has been negative: cutting off electricity supplies to Finland as a start.

But, in my view, that is precisely the wrong reaction! Russia should be bending over backwards to do more to enhance their relationships with both countries. The time is right to build, not destroy, connections. Russia needs to demonstrate its added value and to recognise that NATO membership is not a threat.

Optimism

I’ve often accused Alessandra of being a pessimist to which she invariably responds that, if anything, she is a realist and I am an optimist.

That’s not how I see the point of life: if you are an optimist, the chances are that you will regularly be disappointed. For example, in the early stages of this year’s Barclays Premier League, Arsenal (which is the team I support) performed as if they were in two divisions below the Premier League. And then? The team have primarily been winners. They should finish the season in fourth position. I confess that I did lose hope, so there was a touch of “Paradise Regained”.

When it comes to Lloyd’s, I am always planning to err on the side of conservatism. Right now I feel troubled! I am keeping an open mind but am prepared to be disappointed.

Ukraine/Russia

There is no doubt that Russia no more needs to annex Ukraine than Ukraine needs to annex Russia. But there is a lot of history supporting Ukraine as part of a Soviet dynasty, unfortunately including my mother’s ancestry which grew up in a Ukrainian shtetl subject to the pogroms not infrequently visited upon the poverty stricken residents.

Today we are witnessing fear instead of logic. Is there a sustainable argument? Russia in the eyes of Vladimir Putin envisages the expansion eastward  of the NATO bloc by embracing Ukraine, geographically logical but economically unwise, if not foolish.  Although the invasion of Ukraine seems to have encouraged, even provoked, Sweden and Finland seriously to consider joining the NATO bloc.

Today’s political scene is fraught with uncertainty. It makes all of us insecure.

Priorities

Living in Kwa Zulu Natal or on the East Coast of Australia , one might well be forgiven for prioritising one’s own well-being. Floods seem to be categorised as secondary perils, not being at the same mark as a notable hurricane or earthquake. But for those who are directly affected, including the loss of one’s home, those events are catastrophic in their own right.

These so-called secondary perils now account for a lot more economic cost than defined catastrophes.

Can the increasing number and size of floods and wildfires be blamed on climate change? Not entirely! Geographical movements contribute. People gravitate to living near rivers and beautiful locations which are frequently prone to negative physical consequences. People are inclined to be gregarious and nature may be very unforgiving.

It’s a fact that insured values typically amount to substantially less than 50% of economic cost. It’s likely that this phenomenon will continue unless there is government intervention.

All I want is a little peace/piece

Mel Brooks’ movie ‘To Be or Not To Be’ is one of my favourites for regular reviewing.

“A little piece of Poland, a little slice of Turkey…” might have quite amusing in the movie but it seems quite clear that Putin doesn’t want a little piece of Ukraine. Is it the West’s fault? Blandishments to the Ukraine about joining NATO are costing that country dearly, and why?

Ukraine becoming part of NATO would no more threaten the current Soviet bloc than would Sweden or Finland. But that ignores the innate xenophobia so recognisable in the Russian make up.

It seems to me that the Russians don’t know where they belong: neither Eastern nor Western; not aligned to America nor truly to China.

Hitler used to justify the concept of a German Empire by referring to ‘lebensraum’, space to develop. What we see today from Putin may be a latter day example or just a perception of safety.

I don’t imagine that Putin wants to conquer the world but he does believe in the former Soviet Union. He may have been a taxi driver for a few months but the old KGB is firmly in his blood.

The Nuclear Card

So much has been written and circulated about the nuclear threat emerging from the war between Russia and Ukraine but I have not seen the use of the word ‘psychology’.

It seems to me that the World is facing a zealot (chosen by a friend to describe Putin: definition as one who is fanatical and uncompromising.) The point is that Putin wants Ukraine back in the Soviet mould.

The problem for the West is that there is no one single voice which speaks. There is no fanaticism. There are not always willing allies, each with different needs and priorities, with no fundamental interest in the Ukraine and certainly no equity.

And the World relies on the supply of oil and gas from Russia.

This may end up as a most unpleasant game where the winner may be dependent on Putin’s power of survival and his willingness to play the nuclear card.

 

What of the Future? Personal

It’s probably easier to be a pessimist on most days about the future. Life is bound to change. Equality will be a key word and so it should be.. So many of us are faced with a not very comfortable balance between health and money. It was the famous American comedian, Jack Benny,  regarded as a bit of a tightwad, who in a sketch was  faced with a gun and threatened with “ your money or your life!” To which he responded “let me think about it”.

Our President told us towards the end of April that the Government has raised R500 billion towards various critical projects designed to see our people through the virus and beyond into a renewed, vibrant economy. This sum of money is beyond imagination in South Africa. It destroys the recent pollution under the  corrupt Zuma regime. It gives all of us renewed hope in the future.

But when? There are millions here who have nothing and now no way of generating any income. People are being extraordinarily generous but, no matter how many food parcels, how do you replace self-respect?  We will get there but it will take some time. The strain on all of us will be considerable.

No Trump and the Media

I have to admit that there have been a number of occasions when I have felt warmed by Donald Trump’s remarks and statements. With regard to COVID-19, it does seem that he, and particularly his team, do understand the consequences.

It’s just that he seems to have a unique ability to put his foot (no, both feet) into his mouth at the same time. Why might this matter to us? I think the point is that we all need thoughtful, intelligent and well-balanced leadership. No hysteria, no histrionics. In particular, calmness and straightforward, honest statements and responses.

Today we are facing a prolonged period of uncertainty with indefinable variables. And yet, it is a fact that COVID-19 palls into insignificance when compared to Spanish flu around 1918, let alone the Black Death in the 14th Century. So, much falls into the minds and words of the media and social media.

The conclusion is that politicians and up front speakers need real experience and subtlety in dealing with the media. When they let themselves down, they let us down and today that really matters to us all.

SWOT analysis

COVID-19 requires all of us to revisit our lifestyles, a true personal SWOT analysis.

Let’s say that the Strength is hopefully one’s health. That must come first as, without good health, nothing matters.

Weakness is not paying attention to today’s reality. None of us is immune and, what’s more, we mustn’t assume that we are above and beyond exposure. (Read Edgar Allan Poe’s masterly short story ‘Masque of the Red Death’)

Opportunities. The most difficult time to spot opportunities is when they seem to be invisible! But let’s seek and we will find because when COVID-19 is brought under  control, then the opportunities will have been and gone. So keep your eyes open and your ears alert!

Threats: life and death have grabbed us round the throat. It’s as if there is a bottomless pit drawing us in with no escape. But some countries may already be past the peak. We will all be cleansed in due course. I promise.

Meanwhile…we’ve cancelled our cruise from Venice to Venice and I fear that our month in the country near Lake Como , time with the family, so it’s quiet: time to do the replanting our lives as I suggest above.