Is there anything positive to be extracted from Hurricane/Tropical Storm Harvey?

Certainly not for all those thousands who have been directly affected. For all of those, the extended storm has been nothing less than a catastrophe if not a disaster. Lives have been lost, cars flooded, homes destroyed; by far the worst experiences  most of them have ever suffered.

Round the world there have been exceptional weather exposures: floods, wildfires, drought, ice melts and avalanches, earthquakes. The ice is melting in the Arctic.

One really has to be deaf, blind or dumb (or Donald Trump!) to believe that all of these weather extremes are not related to Global Warming (Warning).

So those who have little or no idea where are those towns in New Zealand or Central Italy where there has been exceptional earthquake activity; or little or no comprehension of the drought which has reduced water supplies in the Western Cape to a drip; or to all those many other towns or locations or countries where really strange weather has produced destruction beyond historical records, perhaps Harvey will prove to be the catalyst for the US administration not only to support but even to lead action to control and reverse the impact of global warming,

Please, Mr President, wake up! You are not Rip van Winkle.”

Brexit is as much a disaster as is Tropical Storm Harvey. That Storm has been going backwards and forwards, on and off the Gulf Coast, causing untold damage.

The Brexit ‘negotiations’ are stalled before they start. Both sides seem to be determined not to negotiate with the objective of reaching constructive solutions. In the process there is scope for untold damage.

Why is this? Perhaps it seems like jobbing backwards and it may be unreasonable to suggest that there was not enough forethought at the time when the UK joined the European Community.

But history would support the argument that the UK does not belong in the EU. No one should enter into a commercial arrangement when the relationship between the parties is not well-founded. Don’t make friends with those who are not your friends.

The EU is a very dubious mixture of ingredients. There are clear beneficiaries and clear losers. Nothing is uniform. The problem for the UK is that withdrawing from this unholy alliance is likely to be much, much more painful with exceptional uncertainties than almost any Brexit voter could have imagined.

The UK shouldn’t have joined. Once in, it would be better to try to improve the structure than leaving. Is there perhaps still time for wisdom and common sense to prevail over rather than short-term emotion?

Before the end of June I knew of two definitions of chutzpah: the first is the teenage boy who shoots both his parents. When he is brought into court, he pleads in his defence that he is an orphan.

The second is the elderly woman who parks herself outside a large office building in New York, selling bagels for 25c (a quarter) each. An executive who works in the building comes by each day and drops a quarter into her basket but doesn’t take a beigel.

One day she stops him: the price has gone up to 30 cents.

Now there is a third example: the self-serving President of South Africa, Jacob Zuma, has encouraged the ANC (his political party, the African National Congress) to go back to its core values.

Those values, as might have been defined by Nelson Mandela, surely did not include corruption, embezzlement, theft, creating new South African citizens by sleight of hand.

What chutzpah!

I recently went to a new (to me) neurologist who earlier this year suffered a heart attack. A fit man, well exercised so not an obvious candidate.

I suggested that he might be able to take something positive from his most unpleasant and concerning experience. In his case letting go and taking things a bit easier. Rebalancing his life. He is doing just that, though not because of me. Just common sense.

As for the idea of a body parts warranty, I’ve asked myself quite often, typically when yet another part from my 17 years old car needs to be replaced, why can’t I do the same with my body?  I’m 76 and I’m in quite good working order. Still, I’d be glad to replace or at least upgrade certain body parts.

However, if there had been a warranty, it would by now have long expired.

These are some of my favourite movies.  First, Midnight in Paris which is one of Woody Allen’s more recent productions.  I tend to think of myself as a logical rather than an emotional person but this movie brings out my emotions to the full.  I have seen the movie at least eight times and look forward to seeing it at least another eight times.  Perhaps I have a real fantasy streak which I was not previously aware of.  There is plenty of fantasy, fun, laughter and love in the movie.  It’s not to be missed.

Perhaps rather more obviously there is the classic, Some Like It Hot, featuring Marilyn, Tony and Jack.  No one can forget the last line when Jack Lemmon reveals to Joe E. Brown that he is a man to which the response is ‘Nobody’s perfect’.  This is another movie that I have watched again and again.

Going to the opposite extreme there is Mississippi Burning.  A brilliant performance by Gene Hackman tackling the intense racism practised for so long in some of the most aggressive states in the southern USA.  It is a miserable indictment of those narrow minded individuals who were frequently members of the Ku Klux Klan.  It’s a good reminder of just how recently America accepted civil rights.  The key bill was cast by President Kennedy but enacted when Lyndon Johnson was President.  That was not an easy task and needed all his skills.

Moving away from the extreme violence of Mississippi Burning to a violent comedy, Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels,  I don’t think I would regard myself as a fundamental fan of Guy Ritchie but I believe this movie to be quite typical of his genre.  It’s probably not for the squeamish and the humour is in no way similar to that of Some Like It Hot although you could say that the scene in which Spats Colombo and his merry men ‘rub out’ Toothpick Charlie might well fit in with Guy Ritchie’s style.  Anyway the movie is fast paced and good for anyone who has reasonable familiarity with the East End of London.

Back to comedy.  I couldn’t decide which Mel Brooks movie to include so thought to present him as a package deal.  My three favourites are Blazing Saddles, High Anxiety and To Be Or Not To Be.  There are too many scenes in each of those films which I find memorable so let me just recommend them all to you and possibly some of his others.

How about Ruthless People which stars Danny de Vito and Bette Midler?  Not that this scene is core to the movie but think of the escapee from the mad house who confronts Bette Midler with the words ‘You look just like my mother’ at which point she smiles and he carries on to say ‘I hate my mother’ and threatens her with his knife.  But the most memorable part is the reunion of Danny and Bette on the wharf at San Francisco when the police detective comments that he hopes his marriage will be as strong as theirs just before she kicks him into the water.

I think I should mention another classic, Don’t Look Now.  This is a kind of psychological thriller.  Perhaps when you see it for the first time you find the denouement surprising as well as painful but when you watch it again and you know what is going to happen, it is a struggle to sit through it.  It’s a brilliant movie.

Finally, a movie which you probably don’t know called The Concert.  I notice from the immediate review when I Google the movie that it does not get very good ratings.  I regard that as nonsense.  It’s a strange concoction of Moscow and Paris.  Anyway, I love it.  Apart from Mississippi Burning which really one cannot frequently watch, the others are movies which I am happy to sit through again and again.

#northkorea

Kim Jong-un is a pudgy, self-opinionated megalomaniac who behaves as if he has nothing to lose. I wonder if his Chinese masters have set him up with an island as a bolt hole.

The Chinese have bitten off more than they can chew. I’m reminded of Grendel’s mother in Beowulf who was much worse than Grendel (in this case Kim Jong-un’s father).

It’s time for the Chinese and Americans to co-operate. No holds barred. They must destroy North Korea’s nuclear bases, no matter what the price. They must destroy this pumped up little tyrant.

Damn the United Nations. Damn their sanctions. What good do they really think they will do?

Or wilt thy say to thy brother ‘Let me pull out the mote of thine eye’ and behold a beam is in thine own eye?  Thou hypocrite.  First cast out the beam of thine own eye and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote of thy brother’s eye.

Wikipedia states that the Mote and the Beam is a proverbial saying of Jesus given in the Sermon on the Mount.  The discourse is fairly brief and begins by warning his followers of the dangers of judging others, stating that they too would be judged by the same standard.  I am not sure that I entirely agree with this interpretation although it may seem arrogant to contrast my thoughts with those of Christ.  However, the issue of judging others does seem one to which it is worth paying close attention.

The point is to try to manage criticism.  It’s very important that we should be aware of our own shortcomings before criticising others.  It is not necessarily the case that our criticism is inaccurate or unfair, it’s more that all of us have faults and so it seems right to recognise one’s own as a starter.  There are the brief words of the Delphic Oracle which are so relevant to all of us.  As translated into English ‘Know thyself’.

Do you think it is easy to do that?  Maybe we won’t like what we see.  Maybe that would be a good thing because maybe we might change.  It’s never too late to change even if the process may be extremely painful.  Anyway, look out for your own beam.  It’s there and probably not alone.

Have you ever thought why so many people who have money to invest choose ‘tracker funds’ rather than individual securities?  One reason is to avoid the frictional costs which are inevitably associated with (regular) dealings in equities.  Another reason is that the majority of fund managers have disappointing track records.  The ones that consistently beat the market are rare commodities.  I think there are good reasons why that’s the case.

It’s a lot to do with temperament.  There are those who handle bull markets extremely well but don’t have the character to handle bear markets because they are not used to taking defensive action, they just don’t feel comfortable with being negative.  The reverse also applies although probably rather less common.  And there is a good reason for that, too.  Just imagine that you are an investment manager whose approach is fundamentally very cautious.  Your clients will not be happy.  They expect to see their assets grow in value especially when they compare the performance of their own funds with that of their friends.

Take the last few years of underwriting at Lloyd’s.  One doesn’t usually describe this activity as an investment, rather it is a business.  However, whichever way you look at it there is a profit and loss account.  Since the World Trade Center disaster in 2001 exceptional profits have been earned in most years.  In my case I have encouraged my clients to become steadily more cautious since 2008.  There have been good reasons in as much as the underwriters whom I most respect have become more cautious.  Eventually I have no doubt that caution will prove wise but in the meantime good profits have continued to be earned and I frequently feel like I am the little boy who keeps crying wolf when there is no wolf in sight.

I manage my own money and that to which I have family access.  Is this wise?  It certainly fits my personality as I dislike letting go of control.  However, if you look at our various portfolios they contain some exceptionally esoteric components.  I am also conscious of that wonderful business book, possibly the only one in which I am interested, The Money Game, written under the pseudonym Adam Smith.  In that book he describes the typical behaviour of an investor who sees the securities in which he has invested falling in value, recovering some of that lost value, and then falling still further.  This process carries on until the investor is so fed up and can’t bear looking at the share prices that he sells out.  This is almost invariably the perfect signal to buy.  Contrary thinking!

What’s difficult is to match a generally positive personality to contrary thinking.  It’s what I am always encouraging my Lloyd’s clients to follow: be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.  This is the approach which Warren Buffet has consistently taken and it has certainly paid dividends.  So if you are going to manage your own money, you had best try to detach yourself from market sentiment and maintain the ability to think for yourself.

I’ve been a bear for at least 40 years.  I can’t remember why I assumed that description but I presume it had something to do with honey and with temperament.  Both these ingredients continue to be relevant.  I am not sure that being a bear is all that desirable in spite of the fact that most children and some adults usually own several bears.  I have got at least six, one of which is pink in fond memories of Grizzly which was the bear confiscated by my Maths master at The Hall Prep School.  I did actually get it back but eventually it disappeared, probably lost.

My hesitation at the description of being a bear comes from the wonderful movie ‘Jungle Book’.  In this movie Baloo the Bear is quite clearly exceptionally stupid although I am very fond of him.  If by any chance you have never seen the movie, please make sure you do but it needs to be the original.

So my question to you is which animal are you?  All of us can surely identify with one animal or another.  If you are particularly lazy you might describe yourself as a sloth.  (As it happens modern naturalists deny this description, arguing that a sloth’s behaviour is a means of survival.)  If you are particularly nervous you might be a kangaroo which is always jumping.  If you are of a fierce disposition you might be a lion, and so on.  Enjoy the game, it’s quite fun determining who you are and seeing who other people think you are.

By now all of us should be aware of the danger of credit cards.  Here in South Africa they seem to be made easily available by various store groups, such as Edgars, Truworths and Woolworths.  There seems to be no check on the cumulative exposure that customers may have and the temptation to use the credit facility seems overwhelming.  One can only assume that the store groups make suitable provision in their accounts for bad debts.  However, I don’t care about store groups, I care about the customers.  It was Oscar Wilde who wrote “I can resist everything except temptation”.  This may have been all very well in one of his plays but it is certainly not at all well for the average man in the street who does not earn enough to cope with one credit card facility, let alone several.

Now we have what purports to be a credit card issued by Investec Bank.  But it is not a credit card at all.  It’s a debit card.  I use it and the expense immediately appears in my bank account.  I am not building any liability beyond my overdraft facility and that cannot be exceeded as I have discovered on several occasions, invariably due to my carelessness.  I am also aware of the amount of debt which has been accumulated worldwide, reaching extraordinarily high proportions.  My conclusion is that credit cards are dangerous.